Ontario Construction Report staff writer
Nearly half of the residential construction jobs in the Greater Toronto Area could be lost by 2027 without urgent government action, warns a new report commissioned by two Ontario homebuilding associations.
The analysis, prepared by Altus Group for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA), predicts a 60 per cent drop in housing starts and a $10-billion decline in construction investment in the GTA if current trends continue.
“The pipeline of future housing supply for the GTA is at risk, along with the livelihood of 41,000 workers in the region and billions of dollars of investments,” said BILD president and CEO Dave Wilkes in a statement.
The groups say the looming downturn underscores the need for federal and provincial governments to eliminate GST and HST on all new homes, not just a narrow subset.
A separate analysis by the Missing Middle Initiative estimates the cost of extending GST/HST relief to all owner-occupied new home purchases would be $2 billion nationally and $900 million provincially.
“This one measure taken in tandem by the province and federal government can immediately lower housing costs, jump-start demand, and protect against future supply shocks that spike prices,” said OHBA CEO Scott Andison.
He argued that compared to the potential economic fallout, the cost of the tax relief is relatively modest. “If this were any other industrial sector, this wouldn’t even be a question,” he said.
The homebuilding groups say the housing sector operates with a long planning and construction pipeline and warn that relying on lagging economic indicators will cause governments to miss the chance to avoid a crisis.
They are calling on both levels of government to act now to help stabilize the industry and protect jobs.